October 23, 2008

Experts Lower Corn Yield Estimates, Soybeans Unchanged

As Missouri producers begin the corn and soybean harvest, it has become obvious that corn yields are not as high as expected, said Gene Danekas, Director, USDA-Missouri Agricultural Statistics. The soybean outlook continues to be somewhat optimistic as the first frost of the season looms heavy and the late crop continues to mature slowly.

Based on conditions as of October 1, Missouri corn yield per harvested acre is forecast at 140 bushels, down two bushels per acre from a year ago and the September 1st estimate.

Production is forecast at 364 million bushels. If realized, this production would be 21 percent below a year ago and down one percent from the September 1st forecast. This remains the fourth largest Missouri corn crop on record.

Acres for harvest for grain are forecast at 2.60 million acres, down 20 percent from 2007 but unchanged from the September 1 estimate.

Soybean yield in Missouri is forecast at 37 bushels per acre, down one-half bushel per acre from the revised 2007 yield but unchanged from the September 1 forecast.

Production is forecast at 189 million bushels, 8 percent above the revised 2007 estimate of 175 million bushels but unchanged from September 1st. This would be the third largest Missouri soybean crop on record.

Harvested acres are expected to total 5.10 million acres, 9 percent above last years revised estimate of 4.67 million acres but unchanged from the September 1 forecast.

U. S. corn production is forecast at 12.2 billion bushels, up one percent from last month but seven percent below 2007. Based on conditions as of October 1st, yields are expected to average 154 bushels per acre, up 1.7 bushels from September and 2.9 bushels above last year. If realized, this will be the second highest yield on record, behind 2004, and production will be the second largest, behind last year.

Soybean production in the U. S. is forecast at 2.98 billion bushels, up two percent from the September forecast and up 11 percent from last year. If realized, this will be the fourth largest production on record. Based on October 1st conditions, yields are expected to average 39.5 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushel from last month and down 2.2 bushels from 2007.

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